In a dramatic quarter-final showdown at the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open, world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka showcased her trademark resilience, outlasting Ukraine’s Marta Kostyuk in a nail-biting 7-6(4), 7-6(7) victory on April 30. The match, played under challenging conditions at the Caja Mágica, was marked by gusty winds, a mid-tiebreak rain delay, and intense pressure points, yet Sabalenka’s mental fortitude propelled her to her fourth Madrid semi-final. The Belarusian now faces another Ukrainian, Elina Svitolina, in a blockbuster semi-final, keeping her hopes alive for a third Madrid title. The clash, which lasted over two and a half hours, captivated fans with its high stakes and emotional intensity, cementing Sabalenka’s reputation as a clay-court titan.
The match began with both players feeling the effects of Madrid’s unpredictable weather. Swirling winds disrupted rhythm, leading to a scrappy first set where Sabalenka faced a set point at 5-4 on Kostyuk’s serve. “I was trying to find the rhythm on my serve,” Sabalenka had noted earlier in the tournament, a challenge that resurfaced as she navigated 10 break points, saving nine. Her power game, honed through wins over Anna Blinkova (6-3, 6-4), Elise Mertens (3-6, 6-2, 6-1), and Peyton Stearns (6-2, 6-4), held firm, and she clinched the first set in a tense 85-minute tiebreak, 7-4, after Kostyuk’s backhand faltered. “Every time I come here, I always hope I’m going to stay until the last stage,” Sabalenka told the crowd, her passion for Madrid evident in her 21-4 career record at the venue.
The second set was a rollercoaster. Kostyuk, ranked No. 36 but playing with the confidence of her best Madrid run, broke Sabalenka to lead 5-4, only for the top seed to respond with blistering forehands. As Sabalenka served for the match at 6-5, Kostyuk’s resilience shone, forcing a tiebreak. At 5-4 in the breaker, with Kostyuk holding three set points, rain halted play, prompting a brief delay to close the Manolo Santana Stadium roof. “Marta Kostyuk, very enojada por la suspensión del partido cuando Sabalenka estaba por realizar su segundo saque,” an X post noted, capturing Kostyuk’s frustration. Upon resumption, Sabalenka unleashed a ferocious backhand winner to save one set point, followed by an ace to erase another, ultimately sealing the 9-7 tiebreak on her first match point. “Honestly, that was a battle and conditions were incredibly tough. It wasn’t about tennis, it was about the way you handled your emotions,” Sabalenka said post-match, her 48 unforced errors a testament to the match’s intensity.
Sabalenka’s journey to the quarter-finals highlighted her clay-court dominance. After a first-round bye, she dispatched Blinkova, rallied past Mertens, and saved 12 of 13 break points against Stearns, amassing a 28-5 record in 2025. Her Madrid legacy—titles in 2021 and 2023, a 2024 final loss to Iga Swiatek, and a 15-1 record in her last 16 matches—makes her a formidable force. “Some players love particular tournaments, and for Aryna Sabalenka, it’s the Madrid Open,” an analyst observed, noting her 74.15% win probability against Kostyuk per betting odds. Sabalenka’s 2-0 head-to-head edge over Kostyuk, including a 6-3, 6-2 clay win at the 2023 French Open, further tilted predictions in her favor, though Kostyuk’s 12-6 clay record over the past two years signaled her threat.
Kostyuk, the No. 24 seed, delivered a career-best Madrid performance, defeating Emma Raducanu (6-4, 2-6, 6-2), Veronika Kudermetova (6-0, 4-6, 6-4), and Anastasia Potapova (6-3, 6-2). Her aggressive style, blending drop shots with baseline power, tested Sabalenka, but her backhand, as one observer put it, “was not quite up to those moments,” missing key opportunities. The match carried emotional weight due to their history: in 2023, Kostyuk declined to shake Sabalenka’s hand at Roland Garros, citing Belarus’s role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “People should be honestly embarrassed,” Kostyuk said then, while Sabalenka responded, “She didn’t deserve to leave the court that way.” No handshake occurred in Madrid, a somber note amid their fierce on-court battle.
Sabalenka’s semi-final against Svitolina, who crushed Moyuka Uchijima 6-2, 6-1, promises another test. Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 3-2, but Svitolina’s 11-match clay win streak and 1-4 record against Sabalenka suggest a close contest. “Played with Aryna a couple of times last year, had some tough battles,” Svitolina said, recalling their three-set clay clashes. With a potential third consecutive Madrid final against Swiatek looming, Sabalenka’s “unreal resilience,” as one X post described, positions her as a favorite. For Kostyuk, the loss stings, but her spirited run signals a rising star. Tennis fans, buzzing over this “incredible” straight-sets epic, eagerly await Sabalenka’s next chapter on Madrid’s red clay.